NL CENTRAL PROJECTED STANDINGS
#1 St. Louis Cardinals (94-68) : The Cardinals are built to win with depth on offense and defense. Management stripped their farm system bare to build a winning team, and they will not be happy if things don't work out. They get some help with a division that is in rebuild mode outside of St. Louis and Chicago, but that won't do much in the playoffs. They don't have the best offense in baseball, or the best pitching staff, but combined it's hard not to pick them as one of the favorites to win it all. Perez-Carpenter-Marte-Blackmon give them a solid base of offense with wild cards in Semien-Wong-Ramirez-Rosario and good depth in Segura-Howard-Urshela-Jaso. The pitching core of Cole-Martinez-Wacha-Ventura gives them one of the deepest rotation of young arms around, and they provided enough cover in free agency to weather an injury or two. Their biggest weakness is bullpen depth as things drop off after Rosenthal-Siegrist-Maness which will leave them exposed late in games.
Can Carpenter repeat his surprising 2015 stat line?
#2 Chicago Cubs (90-72) : The Cubs might not have a great pitching staff, but they are going to pound the ball out of Wrigley Field not to mention anywhere else they play. They have the hitters to win games despite their rotation, but they have some exposure by relying on younger players like Addison Russell, Jorge Soler, Javier Baez, and Arismendy Alcantara. All of their players have All-Star upside, but they will need it to happen fast and all at once to overcome their pitching. If this team isn't frightening this year, they will be for the next 3-4.
Rizzo could be a dark horse MVP candidate.
#3 Cincinnati Reds (80-82) : This is where things get a little murky between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. The Reds get the nod in this log jam solely based on the quality of their pitching. Billy Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, and Neil Walker give this offense some known commodities on offense, but they lack the high upside found in Pittsburgh. The pitching staff, which they famously left to rookies in 2015, is young and talented. The confines of Great American Ball Park are not very forgiving to pitchers, but all five of their starters have enough experience to hit 2016 with a leg up. Having Aroldis Chapman doesn't hurt, so if the young arms can get a lead into the end of the game they should have an advantage there.
Can Hamilton steal 50+ bases for the third year in a row?
#3 Pittsburgh Pirates (76-86) : The Pirates are a bizzaro version of the Reds with a bunch of bodies on offense and some holes in their rotation. They made a hard run at free agency and the trade market to strengthen their offense and put them in a position to be dangerous. Eric Hosmer, Jason Heyward, Billy Burns, and Jose Reyes form a solid core of hitters that should keep them competitive all season. Having Jeff Locke as the nominal ace makes things look bad on the mound for the Pirates. The 2016 Pirates will probably not be very good, but the 2018 team could be the best in the division. Players like Alex Reyes, Josh Flaherty, Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon, Tyler Beede, Christian Arroyo, and Tim Cooney could help turn this team into a champion.
Heyward looks to anchor a monster team in 2018.
#5 Milwaukee Brewers (62-100) : The Brewers have stripped their MLB roster clean in favor of a wholesale rebuild, so it's hard to see Milwaukee winning very many games. They will be in contention for a Top 5 draft pick come 2017, but the next few years will be exciting for Brewers fans. They have two of the best pitchers in baseball, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke, locked up through 2020 so the bevy of prospects brought in will have time to develop. Players like Orlando Arcia, Jacob Gatewood, Jose de Leon, and Gilbert Lara figure to be household names by then. Going to be a long season for the Brew Crew, but their future looks bright.
Scherzer will have it tough this season.
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